With early voting for the Tennessee gubernatorial primary elections beginning this week, the campaigns for candidates U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) and U.S. Representative John Rose (R-TN-06) have released internal polls offering sharply different pictures of the state of the Republican primary race.
Both surveys were conducted from June 28 through June 30 but produced significantly different results.
The Rose campaign’s survey, conducted by McLaughlin & Associates, found Blackburn leading the Republican field with 44 percent support, followed by Rose at 29 percent, State Representative Monty Fritts (R-Kingston) at 12 percent, and 15 percent undecided.
McLaughlin poll | 6/28-6/30 LV
Tennessee Governor Republican primary 2026
🟥Marsha Blackburn 44%
🟥John Rose 29%(John Rose internal)https://t.co/AiTbsh4Wgz
— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) July 7, 2026
The campaign said the results show Blackburn’s lead narrowing from 52 points in the firm’s March poll to 15 points in its latest survey.
Rose’s campaign chairman, Chris Devaney, said in a release that Blackburn falling below 50 percent is a “red flag.”
He added, “Her lead is evaporating before our eyes, and their campaign should be concerned.”
McLaughlin & Associates surveyed 600 likely Republican primary voters using live telephone interviews and text messages. The campaign reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Days later, Blackburn’s campaign released an internal survey conducted by Fabrizio, Lee & Associates showing Blackburn with 51 percent support, Rose with 20 percent, and Fritts with 12 percent.
Tennessee Governor GOP Primary (Marsha Blackburn internal)
🟥 Marsha Blackburn: 51%
🟥 John Rose: 20%
🟥 Monty Fritts: 12%@Fabrizio_Lee | 6/28-30 | LVhttps://t.co/BTodCIFLBo— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 13, 2026
The Blackburn campaign argued Rose’s campaign spending has not translated into significant movement in the race.
“The Rose campaign believes they can buy this election with their candidates’ money – but Tennesseans disagree,” campaign adviser Ward Baker wrote in the polling memo, according to The Tennessee Journal.
The two internal polls differ by seven percentage points on Blackburn’s level of support and nine points on Rose’s, despite surveying voters during the same three-day period. Both polls, however, found Fritts receiving 12 percent of the vote.
The internal polling contrasts with previous independent surveys that showed Blackburn holding a substantially larger lead.
A Beacon Center of Tennessee poll released in May found Blackburn with 63 percent support, Rose with 10 percent, and Fritts with 5 percent. A Cygnal poll released in March found Blackburn at 58 percent, Rose at 7 percent, and Fritts at 4 percent.
Previous polling has consistently placed Rose and Fritts in single digits, while Blackburn boasts leads approaching or exceeding 50 percentage points.
Early voting in Tennessee’s Republican gubernatorial primary begins Friday, July 17. The primary election is August 6.
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Kaitlin Housler is a reporter at The Tennessee Star and The Star News Network.
Photo “Marsha Blackburn” by Marsha Blackburn.
