A major prediction market platform that became popular during the 2024 election shows U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) with a 95 percent probability of being the Republican nominee to become the next Governor of Tennessee.
By contrast, the market implies U.S. Representative John Rose (R-TN-06) and State Representative Monty Fritts (R-Kingston) each have less than a 10 percent chance of securing the party’s nomination.
At press time, the prediction website Kalshi shows Blackburn with a market-indicated 95.2 percent chance of securing the Republican gubernatorial nomination, while the market-implied chance of Rose attaining the nomination was at just 5 percent. Fritts followed, with trading prices implying the state lawmaker has a 3 percent chance of success.
The platform also prices a single contract predicting Blackburn will win the Republican nomination at 97.7 cents, implying she has a nearly 98 percent probability of winning the nomination. Illustrating the one-sided odds, if a user purchases this contract and Blackburn wins, they will receive a $1 payout, representing only a 2.3-cent profit from the platform before fees.
Prediction markets grew in popularity since the 2024 election cycle, and a study performed at Vanderbilt University found the markets were generally predictive of outcomes.
According to the study, the predictions made on Kalshi in 2024 matched the election outcome 78 percent of the time, placing it behind the competing market PredictIt, where 93 percent of predictions matched outcomes. Kalshi ranked ahead of Polymarket, where just 67 percent of election predictions lined up with election results.
Backing up the recent research conducted in Tennessee, an earlier study from the University of Iowa determined in 2008 that markets were a better predictor of election outcomes about 74 percent of the time when compared to 964 national polls of five elections that occurred between 1988 and 2004.
Despite the growing popularity, Kalshi remains controversial in Tennessee for the sports-related prediction contracts offered on the platform. The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council sent Kalshi a cease-and-desist letter in January, alleging the company’s sports contracts violate state law requiring online gambling websites to obtain state licenses.
Kalshi obtained a preliminary injunction in February, when U.S. District Judge Aleta Trauger authorized the company to continue operating in Tennessee after paying a $500,000 bond.
Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes also filed misdemeanor charges against Kalshi in March, accusing the predictions platform of operating an illegal gambling and election wagering website, but the lawsuit was permanently blocked by a federal judge in May.
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Tom Pappert is a 2025 recipient of the Dao Prize and the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star. He also reports for the Star News Network. Follow Tom on X. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Marsha Blackburn” by Marsha Blackburn.
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