Tag: FiveThirtyEight

‘Truly Unprecedented:’ Donald Trump Is Dominating the Early Primary Season Like Nothing in Modern History

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Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the early primary season in an unprecedented third bid for the White House, polling experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

This Republican primary cycle is like none other as the frontrunner is a former president, has a massive lead in the polls, his former vice president is running against him and Trump has two federal indictments under his belt. Polling analysts stressed to the DCNF the stark difference between this GOP primary season and previous cycles, arguing that it’s difficult to draw comparisons in modern history.

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Commentary: The Top 10 U.S. Senate Races to Watch

Admin

Americans will soon get to cast their first votes since the science–denying COVID mask and vaccine mandates, the second wave of COVID-related blowout spending and subsequent inflation, and the COVID-related school closures that allowed parents to see what the public schools are really teaching their boys and girls – including that they can choose whether they are boys or girls. With all of these matters implicitly on the ballot, how are things shaping up going into Election Day?

Starting with the House of Representatives, six months ago Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report projected “a GOP gain in the 15-25 seat range.” At the time, I responded, “While things could change over the next six months (although the cake is probably largely baked), a GOP gain of 30 to 40 House seats appears more likely at this stage of the contest than Walter’s projected GOP gain of 15 to 25 seats.”

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Commentary: The State of Political Polling in America

RealClearWire

Two years ago, 14 public opinion polls queried Maine voters about their preference in the campaign between incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Sara Gideon. Every one of those surveys had Gideon ahead, by margins ranging from 1 percentage point (Bangor Daily News) to 12 points (Quinnipiac). When the election returns rolled in, however, none of them were close. Collins prevailed handily, beating Gideon by 8.6%.

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Ohio County Democratic Auditor Comes Out Against U.S. Senate Candidacy of Tim Ryan

Bradley Vasoli

A Cincinnati-area Democratic public official is urging Ohioans to vote against his party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate on Tuesday.

Supporters of Republican Senate nominee J.D. Vance and critics of Democratic hopeful Tim Ryan are enthusiastically sharing an opinion piece Hamilton County Auditor Dusty Rhodes (D) penned for The Cincinnati Enquirer on Friday. In the guest column, Rhodes calls Ryan “a fraud who must be defeated” and who “does not deserve your vote” irrespective of one’s party affiliation. 

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Polls Find Key Races Too Close to Call

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United States Capitol

Election day comes Tuesday, putting a range of major issues up for grabs as both parties battle for control of the House, Senate and gubernatorial races around the country.

The latest polling shows a tight but favorable electoral landscape for Republicans. FiveThirtyEight’s analysis and compilation of generic polls found voters overall prefer that Republicans control Congress by 1.2 percent.

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Analysts Now Treating Pennsylvania Senate Race as a Toss-Up

Bradley Vasoli

After an uninterrupted stretch of good polling news for Pennsylvania Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman (D) in his U.S. Senate race against Republican celebrity surgeon Mehmet Oz, major analysts now suggest the race could go either way. 

The Cook Political Report and the data aggregator FiveThirtyEight both came out with assessments of recent survey data leading them to conclude Oz can win. 

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Ohio Senate Candidate Ryan Fundraises in California, Says Absence Is Owed to ‘Public Health Emergency’

Bradley Vasoli

U.S. Representative Tim Ryan (D-Ohio-13) spurred a firestorm of Republican reprehension this week after he declared himself unable to attend House proceedings “due to the ongoing public emergency” and then went to Los Angeles, California for a fundraiser.

Ryan reportedly traveled to the Hollywood home of Jay Sures, currently the vice chair of United Talent Agency, for a campaign event expected to bring $100,000 into the congressman’s coffers. The candidate, who faces Republican attorney, venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance on November 8, permitted Representative Madeleine Dean (D-PA-4) to cast proxy votes in his absence. Later on Ryan’s agenda during his Golden-State visit was a Thursday-morning event featuring numerous Hollywood celebrities, including actors Brian Tyler Cohen and Howie Mandel. 

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Ohio Senate Candidate Ryan: ‘Kill and Confront’ GOP’s MAGA Wing

Bradley Vasoli

On Tuesday, speaking to Joe Scarborough and his “Morning Joe” panel on MSNBC, Ohio Democratic Senate candidate Tim Ryan made a dramatic statement regarding how he wants to deal with members of the Republican Party he regards as “extremist.” 

“We’ve got to kill and confront that movement,” Ryan said of a group he termed “the extremists that we’re dealing with every single day,” strongly implying he meant supporters of former President Donald Trump, or the “Make America Great Again” [MAGA] movement. The candidate, a who represents Ohio’s 13th District in the U.S. House of Representatives, faces attorney, author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance — an outspoken MAGA candidate — in the November election. 

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Ryan to Appear with Biden in Ohio Despite President’s Low Approval Rating

Bradley Vasoli

U.S. Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH-13), a candidate for U.S. Senate in Ohio, said this weekend that he will make a public appearance alongside President Joe Biden despite the latter’s abysmal approval rating in the Buckeye State.

A July survey from Morning Consult indicated Biden suffered from a -23-point net approval rating in Ohio. Ryan is himself struggling to win sufficient favor with Ohioans in his race against Republican attorney, venture capitalist and author J.D. Vance who maintains a 3.7-point average polling lead against the Democrat according to RealClearPolitics.com. 

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In Tight Ohio Senate Race, Republicans Prepare Major Ad Buy

Bradley Vasoli
JD Vance

Republican JD Vance and U.S. Representative Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) are locked in a tight race to represent Ohio in the U.S. Senate, but the GOP is moving to push Vance ahead with a major advertising purchase.

The Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) announced Thursday it will buy $28 million worth of broadcast ads to air across the Buckeye State beginning on Labor Day. National Republican organizations have spent only about $5 million in Ohio so far in Vances contest with Ryan.

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