The prognostications within the Vanderbilt University Poll released by its Center for the Study of Democratic Institutions missed the actual intentions of Tennessee voters by up to 20 percent.
Published in May, the Vanderbilt poll failed to capture the size of the lead achieved by Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) in her race against State Representative Gloria Johnson (D-Knoxville), with the pollsters ultimately off by 20 percent.
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NBC National Political reporter Steve Kornacki warned on Sunday the Democratic Party is losing its advantage in registration numbers and among Hispanic voters, which could cost Vice President Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania.
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Pollster Matt Towery said Monday on Fox News that Vice President Kamala Harris’s attempts to rebrand herself are failing.
Towery appeared on “The Ingraham Angle” to discuss the New York Times poll showing that 47% of voters view Harris as too liberal, while 32% view former President Donald Trump as too conservative. Towery emphasized that Harris’s efforts to shift her image are “not working” because the polling numbers that favored Trump during Biden’s candidacy are starting to return to similar levels.
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Former President Donald Trump is slightly ahead in the polls and, as in 2016 and 2020, he is drawing massive crowds at his rallies. Some knowledgeable observers have even speculated that Trump could be on the verge of a landslide electoral college victory.
But, while our attention is being drawn to the polls, the campaigning, and the strategies of the presidential candidates, what about the taxpayer-funded electoral apparatus that has been created over the past four years by the Biden-Harris regime?
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Vice President Kamala Harris has enjoyed a noticeable surge in the polls – particularly national polls – since becoming the Democratic standard bearer, but the rapid shift in her position has left some industry analysts questioning the apparent boost in the formerly quite unpopular vice president’s standing. In her 2020 run, she struggled to break 3 percent before dropping out, according to The Hill.
Prior to becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris suffered from decidedly poor approval ratings and Trump initially held the lead over her in a head-to-head matchup. The average quickly flipped, however, in the wake of several surveys showing Harris ahead. Those surveys, however, have attracted scrutiny from an array of pollsters either due to their lack of transparency about the sampling methodology or from oversampling Democrats.
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Long-time pollster John McLaughlin said President Joe Biden is trying to make former President Donald Trump look like the “Nelson Mandela of America” through the tactic of lawfare in order to persuade voters to vote against him in November.
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15 percent of independents said that the New York City of conviction would make them more likely to support former President Donald Trump in 2024 election against incumbent President Joe Biden, with only 11 percent saying it would make them less likely, an NPR-Marist poll taken May 21 to May 23 shows. 74 percent said it would make no difference.
In addition, the poll had 10 percent of Republicans saying the conviction would make them less likely to vote for Trump if convicted and 7 percent of Democrats saying more likely to vote for Trump, a +3 percent advantage for Biden.
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Donald Trump is out on bail in four jurisdictions facing dozens of felony charges and it does not seem to affect his ratings in the surveys. Many people wonder why.
First of all, let me assure you that Donald Trump is not made of Teflon. Rather, he is probably the most polarizing politician on earth right now. While he does have a very enthusiastic base, a majority of Americans in almost every poll have an unfavorable opinion about him. So it’s not that the various attacks, scandals, allegations, and bad press he has faced ever since he has entered politics have not affected his ratings. They have. Remember that even on the day when he won the presidential election back in 2016, he was the most negatively seen winning presidential candidate in history.
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For the past several months, the public has been inundated by polls. national polls, state polls, issue polls. Yet, the 64-dollar question remains: Who is winning for President, Trump or Biden?
Over the past two months, the two presumptive nominees have swapped first place multiple times with Trump mostly in the advantage. So, the short answer is that the race is so close that neither is really ahead, at least we cannot say who is ahead in that national ballot test with high certainty. Trump is probably ahead very narrowly and has been since February.
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During the two months since President Biden delivered his State of the Union address, a wide variety of legacy news outlets have been at pains to portray an infinitesimal improvement in his polling as a shift of momentum in the presidential race. Last week, for example, USA Today breathlessly reported that “Trump and Biden are ‘darn near even’ in the 2024 election.” If this was meant to provide moral sustenance for worried Democrats it was thin gruel indeed. Biden is an incumbent president struggling to keep up with a challenger most of whose time and money has been devoted to fighting off a ruthless lawfare campaign. Moreover, if history is any guide, it’s probable that the polls understate the strength of Trump’s support.
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Voters are heading to the polls in 16 states to cast their primary ballots on Super Tuesday as a 2020 rematch between former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden appears likely.
Biden has been holing up at Camp David, the presidential retreat in Maryland, since Friday, according to his official schedule. He is set to return to the White House on Tuesday afternoon while his State of the Union address is scheduled for Thursday evening.
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Former President Donald Trump is currently polling better against President Joe Biden than he has at anytime in the last two presidential election cycles as the two men head toward a likely rematch in November.
Trump is ahead of Biden by 3.8 points in the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, which is his largest lead this cycle against the president. The lead is also far above Trump’s record for the last two cycles, where he never led Biden in the RCP average and was only ahead of Hillary Clinton during two separate periods in 2016.
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With efforts to close New Hampshire’s presidential primary likely failing, the state’s primary could be determined by the state’s independent voters, who make up nearly 40 percent of the state’s electorate.
Republicans make up significantly fewer voters, 29.82 percent, and Democrats slightly more, at 30.28 percent. Since President Joe Biden has no significant challengers in the state’s Democratic primary, many Democrats were expected to register as independents — known as undeclared voters in the state — to sway the Republican primary.
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In a routine that has become familiar of late, CNN’s Jim Acosta reports the ongoing ascendancy of Donald Trump in the polls with a mixture of dismay and disbelief. With these emotions front and center on his November 5 cable show, Acosta grimly reported the latest polling on the 2024 presidential candidates, noting that Trump is now ahead of Biden in five out of six crucial swing states. In Nevada, where Trump lost by 2 percentage points in 2020, Trump is now up by 11 points over Biden.
As Acosta proceeded to interview experts in an attempt to make sense out of this, the prevailing message was Biden is too old, and that has voters worried. David Frum, a reliable uniparty stalwart, reassured Acosta that “Trump is only three years younger than Biden,” and that Trump is so weak and elderly that he “can’t even open a jar of pickles.” The men then proceeded to applaud Biden as physically hale and hearty, dismissing concerns about his age as unwarranted.
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Former President Donald Trump was back in the first caucus state Monday afternoon, still dominating in the polls and still spoiling for a fight.
“Crooked Joe Biden and his radical left Democrats … have weaponized law enforcement to arrest their leading political opponent, me,” Trump told hundreds of supporters at a rally in suburban Des Moines just 91 days before Iowa Republicans hold the first-in-the-nation 2024 presidential caucuses.
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Long-shot Republican presidential candidate Doug Burgum gets his shot on Wednesday to get a word in on foreign policy.
The North Dakota governor, who struggled to be heard in the last GOP presidential primary debate, is scheduled to deliver a “major foreign policy and national security s speech” at the Hudson Institute in Washington, D.C.
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They’re back …
Following last week’s disorderly second debate, several Republican presidential candidates are back in Iowa this week with less than 3 1/2 months to make their case to Hawkeye State caucus-goers.
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Former President Donald Trump plans to campaign in southeast Iowa on Sunday.
The frontrunner in the GOP presidential nomination chase will deliver remarks at a Team Trump Iowa Commit to Caucus event at 2:30 p.m. in Ottumwa, according to his campaign.
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A recent poll showing President Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch if the former president is convicted of the indictments he’s facing was conducted by the pollster working with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ super PAC.
As in other polls connected to the DeSantis camp, the latest survey does not include basic topline and demographic information.
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“This is a red flag.”
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ campaign blasted out a warning email on Friday, reminding Iowa voters what so many across the country fear: Vice President Kamala Harris could one day be in charge.
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Although he’s decided not to seek the GOP presidential nomination, former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan has plenty of advice on who shouldn’t be a candidate.
Hogan told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday that Ohio businessman and political outsider Vivek Ramaswamy “shouldn’t be running for president.
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Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy will be all over New Hampshire this Labor Day weekend — at a fair in Contoocook, a house party in Dublin, town halls in Conway and Laconia, and a parade and a picnic in the mix.
In all, the Ohio businessman will press the flesh and ascend the stump at 11 events over four days.
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So much for indictments, mug shots, and the first GOP presidential primary debate. Teflon Donald Trump remains the clear favorite among Republican voters, according to a new Economist/YouGov poll.
The online survey of 1,500 adults, most of them registered voters, provides an interesting snapshot on just how important last week’s debate was — or wasn’t — and how unpopular some of the GOP presidential candidates are.
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With just 24 hours to go before the first Republican presidential primary debate of the 2024 campaign, Ohio entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy spent Tuesday evening as he has spent almost every waking hour since launching his bid for the White House in February: Campaigning.
Ramaswamy held a high-energy rally at downtown Milwaukee’s beer garden, just feet away from the Fiserv Forum, home of the NBA’s Milwaukee Bucks and site of Wednesday evening’s debate.
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Despite facing three criminal indictments, former President Donald Trump is crushing his GOP presidential nominee competitors and running neck and neck with President Joe Biden, according to the latest polls.
In battleground Arizona, a new Emerson College poll finds Trump leading Biden by 2 percentage points in a hypothetical rematch of the 2020 presidential election.
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Forget all those stodgy, static polls. The Republican Party of Iowa’s Lincoln Dinner after parties are where the action is.
Following 130 minutes of speeches from the 13 GOP presidential candidates who turned out Friday for Iowa’s largest political cattle call of the summer, the contestants greeted voters in reserved suites at the Iowa Events Center in downtown Des Moines.
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Democrat presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is beginning to build his political ground game in Iowa, even as he battles a Democratic Party that has kicked the kickoff caucus state out of its long-held position of primacy.
The Kennedy family scion and anti-vaccine warrior — or at least his campaign — is cordially inviting Iowans to his Iowa Campaign Kickoff and Precinct Training Event from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. Sunday.
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Heading into Iowa for a big weekend after rising in the polls, Ohio businessman and GOP presidential hopeful Vivek Ramaswamy will join Elon Musk and investor David Sacks live Friday afternoon on x.com.
The conversation on the social network platform formerly known as Twitter is set for 4:30 p.m. Central Time, hours before Ramaswamy joins much of the rest of the packed field of Republican presidential candidates at the Republican Party of Iowa’s Lincoln Dinner fundraiser in Des Moines.
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Republican presidential hopeful Tim Scott returns to Iowa this week riding high in a new Hawkeye State poll and looking to capitalize on two key campaign events.
The South Carolina U.S. senator will host a town hall with Governor Kim Reynolds Thursday evening in Ankeny before speaking at the Iowa GOP’s annual Lincoln Day Dinner fundraiser on Friday.
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Political outsider Vivek Ramaswamy is heading back to Iowa this week with a lot of momentum and a big target on his back in the Republican Party presidential nomination chase.
The Ohio biotech engineer is set to join the cattle call of candidates at Friday’s “pinnacle” event of the Hawkeye State’s long, hot summer of presidential politics — the Republican Party of Iowa’s sold-out Lincoln Dinner fundraiser in Des Moines.
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He’s young. He’s successful. And he’s extremely confident. Some might say cocky.
Rising in the Republican presidential primary polls, Ohio biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is not only predicting he will be the GOP candidate for president in 2024, he’ll force Democrats to drive President Joe Biden out of the race.
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A poll published last week by German-owned Politico Magazine insists that “most Americans — including a large number of Republicans … “ agree that the former President Donald Trump’s trial on federal charges he mishandled classified documents should take place before the Republican Party primary.
And nearly half, according to the Ipsos poll of more than 1,000 “adults,” believe Trump is guilty.
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. may be a long-shot candidate for the Democratic Party presidential nomination, but he appears to be hauling in the kind of campaign cash that could give President Joe Biden and his re-election efforts some heartburn.
The Kennedy Jr. campaign last Friday announced its first million-dollar day just hours before the close of the critical July quarterly reporting period.
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At a Fargo events center packed with family, friends and neighbors, North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum stressed his small-town roots, his success in building a multi-billion dollar software business on the Great Plains, governing a growing state, and his vision for an innovative America in announcing his bid for the White House.
The newly minted presidential candidate joins a crowded field of declared Republican presidential candidates, launching his campaign on the same day former Vice President Mike Pence kicked off his in Iowa.
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Former President Donald Trump stormed back into Iowa Thursday with an urgent message for voters in the kickoff caucus state: I’m here to win.
The frontrunner Republican — by far — in the Republican presidential nomination chase made several campaign stops in the Des Moines metropolitan area. But this latest swing through Iowa found Trump eschewing his usual massive campaign rallies for more intimate venues with smaller crowds, perhaps recognition that winning in the first-in-the-nation caucus state will require the kind of face-to-face retail politics Iowans have grown accustomed to.
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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis officially launched his presidential campaign Wednesday, ending months of speculation and ratcheting up what promises to be an intense battle for the Republican Party nomination.
DeSantis enters the race as a top tier candidate, but still lagging far behind frontrunner Donald Trump, according to just about every poll out there.
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U.S. Senator Tim Scott made it official Monday, launching his campaign for president in the North Charleston, SC, hometown that informed his core belief: That the United States of America is “the land of opportunity, not a land of oppression.”
Joined on stage by the single mother who raised him and the wife of the mentor who entered his adolescent life at a critical time, the Republican spoke of the opportunities that made him the man — and the presidential candidate — he is today.
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Former President Donald Trump is surging in the polls ahead of the 2024 election.
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Tennessee polling places will now be required to post signs on partisan primary election days warning voters to only vote in a primary for a party that they are a bona fide member.
Gov. Bill Lee signed a bill to add the notice to polling places this week.
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The clash of the GOP titans didn’t happen after all in the Hawkeye State.
Former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis were scheduled to make separate campaign stops in Iowa Saturday.
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GOP heavyweights, former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, are slated to appear at events in Iowa on May 13.
Trump, who declared his run for the White House late last year, is scheduled to be in Des Moines, an unnamed campaign official told the Associated Press.
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As his polling numbers climb nationally, Ohio businessman and anti-woke crusader Vivek Ramaswamy’s political stock appears to be rising in South Carolina, as well.
The youngest GOP candidate in the field “enjoyed another well-received visit to the Palmetto State,” one of the first presidential nominating states, according to the latest FitsNews Palmetto Political Stock Index.
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President Joe Biden announced his re-election campaign Tuesday, insisting he’s running again to “stand up for fundamental freedoms.”
Republicans in the nation’s presidential battleground states say the out-of-touch 80-year-old Democrat has cost Americans their freedoms — and their finances.
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Public Opinion Strategies is out with yet another poll showing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis faring better against former President Donald Trump, this time in battleground Wisconsin.
But just who is paying for the polling that paints a picture of DeSantis’ presidential strength despite Trump’s significant lead in primary polls remains unclear.
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As he moves closer to a presidential campaign announcement, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has scheduled a trip to the Badger State next month.
DeSantis, who is expected to officially launch his run for the White House after the Florida legislative session ends in early May, will speak at the Republican Party of Marathon County Lincoln Day Dinner on May 6.
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A new poll of likely New Hampshire Republican voters shows former President Donald Trump far outpacing his nearest competitors.
Trump now holds a 20 percentage point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (42% to 22%), according to the University of New Hampshire’s Granite State Poll.
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Just three days after tech mogul Elon Musk acquired Twitter, promising to bring free speech to the platform, the social media giant suspended Arizona secretary of state candidate Mark Finchem. The election is eight days away, and the Trump-endorsed state representative is running on a platform of combating voter fraud – a contentious topic that raises hackles on the Right and Left.
Finchem received a notice from Twitter Monday afternoon telling him, “We’ve temporarily limited some of your account features.” It went on to say, “We have determined this account violated the Twitter Rules. Specifically for:” However, there was no reason specified.
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Don’t look now, but Democrats’ 8-point lead in the generic Congressional ballot question from a month ago has evaporated in the latest Economist-YouGov poll of registered voters, which now shows the race for Congress tied, 44 percent to 44 percent on Sept. 24-27.
On Aug. 28-30, Democrats were leading Economist-YouGov’s generic ballot 46 percent to 38 percent. Leading the change in the state of the race is largely an apparent collapse of support for Democrats among younger adults, and a strengthening of support for Republicans among older adults.
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Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial nominee says she will conduct a wide-ranging tour to answer voters’ questions while her Democrat opponent remains noticeably absent from the campaign trail.
Kari Lake said in a video posted to her Twitter account that she is announcing an “Ask Me Anything” tour in response to Secretary of State Katie Hobbs’s refusal to share a stage with her, escalating what has been a one-sided war in that arena.
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There has been a lot of talk during this election cycle about “voter enthusiasm;” which side has it, what are its causes, and what might it all mean for the final result. Much of it is propaganda that should be ignored, but there are some numbers and data that can help illuminate the terrain. All that attention is appropriate, given that each and every election depends entirely on who shows up to vote.
Let’s start with the propaganda.
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