Commentary: Polls Underestimate Trump Because He Appeals to Americans Who Are Less Political

Trump and Crowd

One of the largest takeaways from Trump’s unexpected success in 2016 – and the inability of pollsters to accurately predict the support he earned in both 2016 and 2020 – is that Trump has continuously appealed to Americans who are less politically engaged.  

Adding to the issue, is that Americans with lower political engagement are also generally harder to recruit into political surveys to share their opinions. We see this theme repeatedly, with low propensity voters, especially first-time voters, being much more likely to support Trump than highly active voters. At the same time, lower frequency voters are much harder to reach in polls before election day.

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Commentary: Voter Photo IDs Are the Rule in Europe and Elsewhere

Democrats and much of the media are pushing to make permanent the extraordinary, pandemic-driven measures to relax voting rules during the 2020 elections – warning anew of racist voter “suppression” otherwise. Yet democracies in Europe and elsewhere tell a different story – of the benefits of stricter voter ID requirements after hard lessons learned. 

A database on voting rules worldwide compiled by the Crime Prevention Research Center, which I run, shows that election integrity measures are widely accepted globally, and have often been adopted by countries after they’ve experienced fraud under looser voting regimes.

Britain is Europe’s outlier in generally not requiring voter IDs, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson aims to change that. He went to the polls in May with wife-to-be Carrie Symonds.

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Gavin Newsom Less Than 100k Signatures Away from Facing Recall Election

Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom is less than 100,000 signatures away as of Thursday from being forced into a recall special election.

California state law stipulates that a sitting governor must face a recall special election if 12% of voters from the previous gubernatorial election, in this case 1.5 million California residents, sign a petition to recall the governor. At the time of publication, 1.4 million Californians have signed a petition to recall Newsom.

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Commentary: GOP Election Fraud Deniers Face Reckoning

So here’s the official company line promoted by establishment Republicans to defend the outcome of the 2020 presidential election: Of course the election had some irregularities like all elections but nothing that would change the result and, by the way, the country needs some major election integrity reform before this happens again.

The doublespeak designed to refute what election fraud deniers call “the big lie” was best expressed over the weekend by Chris Christie, the former New Jersey governor, failed presidential candidate, and now paid ABC News shill. While attempting to shame fellow Republicans for bolstering Donald Trump’s complaints about how the election was handled in states that flipped to Joe Biden in 2020, Christie falsely claimed there wasn’t any evidence of vote fraud. “I don’t think there’s any question that the country needs to focus on in terms of our elections is making sure we have some effective electoral reform . . . we need to make the system better for 2022,” Christie told ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos on Sunday. “But this election was not stolen.”

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Rasmussen Poll: Black Lives Matter Riots Turning People in Riot Zones into Trump Voters

The violent Black Lives Matter riots that rocked multiple American cities this summer have turned voters who live in those riot zones into Trump supporters, a new Rasmussen poll finds.

The latest Rasmussen Reports Survey found that 63 percent of voters who have seen violent protests in their community “strongly approve” of the president while only 35 percent don’t.

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