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Tennessee Star Poll: Nashville/Davidson County Voters Oppose Transit Plan by 2 to 1 Margin

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A new poll first reported on Monday morning by Brian Wilson, host of 99.7 FM WTN’s Nashville’s Morning News, shows that likely voters in Nashville/Davidson County oppose the proposed $9 billion transit plan on the May 1 ballot by more than a 2 to 1 margin, 62 percent against to 28 percent in favor, with only 10 percent undecided.

The Tennessee Star Poll of 607 likely voters in Nashville/Davidson County was conducted by Triton Research over a two day period between Thursday, April 12 and Friday, April 13 in an automated telephone (IVR) survey and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

When asked “If the election was held today, would you vote for or against the $9 billion Transit Plan and Tax?” poll respondents answered as follows:

62.4 percent said “Against the Transit Plan”

27.9 percent said “For the Transit Plan”

9.7 percent said “Don’t Know/Not sure”

Voter interest in the May 1 Davidson County primary election and the referendum on the transit tax was high among the 607 poll respondents, all of whom were registered voters residing in Davidson County.

Sixty-three percent of respondents said they “always vote,” 20 percent said they were “very likely” to vote on May 1, 14 percent said they were “likely” to vote on May 1, and 3 percent said they were “somewhat likely” to vote on May 1.

Opposition to the Nashville Transit Plan increased even further among respondents when respondents were asked later in the poll how a sales tax increase–a key element of the plan up for consideration on the May 1 ballot– would influence their vote.

When asked “Would you support or oppose a sales tax increase in Nashville to pay for a light rail transit system and expansion of bus lines?” 66.5 percent of poll respondents said “No, I oppose increasing the sales tax to pay for light rail and more buses,” while 25 percent said “Yes, I support increasing the sales tax to pay for light rail and more buses.”

“The responses to the two separate poll questions regarding the Transit Plan itself and whether voters would support or oppose paying higher sales taxes to support light rail and expanded bus seem to confirm that voter opposition to the Transit plan is consistent and also that they understand what that plan is all about,” conservative political strategist Steve Gill pointed out.

“I suspect that the pro-Transit group has done their own polling. The fact that their results have not been released or leaked probably indicates that their numbers reflect the same level of opposition to the tax increase that the Triton poll shows,” Gill noted.

“However,” Gill quickly said, “while voters may have a pretty clear opinion against the Transit plan, the real question is whether the supporters or opponents are more successful in turning out their votes. What people think matters less than whether they actually turn out to vote how they think.”

Forty-six percent of poll respondents self-identified as Democrats, 35 percent self-identified as Republicans, and 19 percent self-identified as Independent or other.

Sixty-eight percent of poll respondents self-identified as White/Caucasion, 16 percent self-identified as African-American, 4 percent as another race, 2 percent as Hispanic, and 1 percent as Asian. Eight percent said they preferred not to answer.

In terms of geographic residence within Davidson County, 71 percent were residents of Nashville, with the remaining 29 percent residing in the following areas:

7 percent Antioch
5 percent Hermitage
5 percent Madison
3 percent Old Hickory
3 percent Goodlettsville
2 percent Cane Ridge
1.6 percent Brentwood
1 percent Joelton
0.4 percent Mount Juliet
0.3 percent Whites Creek

Early voting for the May 1 transit plan referendum began Tuesday, April 10, and will continue until Thursday, April 26.

The Tennessee Star Poll also asked likely voters in Nashville/Davidson their preferences in the May 24 special election for Mayor of Nashville.

Brian Wilson will report those results exclusively on 99.7 FM WTN’s Nashville’s Morning News at 7:35 a.m. Monday.

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21 thoughts on “Tennessee Star Poll: Nashville/Davidson County Voters Oppose Transit Plan by 2 to 1 Margin

  1. […] poll only missed the actual results by a whopping 42 points! (The Tennessee Star poll showed a much more accurate 62-28% split in advance of the vote, with ten percent […]

  2. […] Tennessee Star Poll, released on April 16, showed 62 percent opposed, 27 percent in support, a 35 point differential favoring […]

  3. […] and African American focused Tribune are on the same side you know it’s the right side! Plus, the only public poll regarding the referendum was conducted by The Tennessee Star, and was spot […]

  4. Dorrence Stovall

    Nashville is a great city that is in the process of being ruined by liberal democrat politics. Yesterdays resounding defeat was a hopeful sign that the city can change. The election of Carol Swain as Mayor on May 24th will be a watershed moment. All politics are local and its time we have a truly conservative Republican Party in Davidson County. We cannot have ballots like this one where there was not a SINGLE REPUBLICAN RUNNING FOR AN OFFICE!! We need someone on the Republican side in every office race so that there is at least a choice to be made. There is hope, but conservatives must speak up!! Well done in defeating the Transit measure.

  5. […] Opponents of the transit plan swept to victory in the final vote count by a stunning 64 percent to 36 percent margin in record voter turnout in Nashville/Davidson County. The results were remarkably close to The Tennessee Star Poll released on April 16, which showed opposition to the plan at 62 percent, with support only at 27 percent. […]

  6. […] The election day results were remarkably close to the results of a Tennessee Star Poll released on Monday April 16, which had 62 percent of voters opposing the plan with only 27 percent supporting it. […]

  7. […] polls was one conducted by The Tennessee Star a few weeks ago that showed Nashville likely voters overwhelmingly opposed to the interim Mayor David Briley-supported plan.  (Briley himself faces voters in a May 24 […]

  8. […] previously reported by The Tennessee Star, voters’ opposition of the expensive plan outweighs its support by […]

  9. […] previously reported by The Tennessee Star, voters’ opposition of the expensive plan outweighs its support by […]

  10. […] Briley, in contrast, has continued to maintain his support for the transit plan, which the April 16 Tennessee Star Poll showed is opposed by Nashville/Davidson County voters by a 2-to-1 margin, 62 percent to 27 percent. […]

  11. […] First, he continues to maintain his support for the $9 billion transit plan, despite the recent Tennessee Star Poll that shows residents of Nashville/Davidson County oppose it by a 62 percent to 27 percent margin. […]

  12. Dan Meredith

    Chris… “conservatives have been running everything for over 60 years”??? And where was THIS????? Liberalism is truly delusional.

  13. Francesca

    Nashville is considered all of Davidson County. Metropolitan Nashville includes all of the outlying neighborhoods listed; i.e. Antioch, Hermitage, Old Hickory, Madison.

  14. Pastor Enoch Fuzz

    This proposal was drafted by an administration riddled with improper and unscrupulous deals and improprieties. I cannot in good conscious support $9 billion dollars for something we don’t even know will work. As to creating jobs, the number one complaint of business owners is they cannot find workers. Nashville deserves a better solution. And BULLY to the BULLIES!

  15. Chris

    Crazy that all these people are blaming liberals for wanting this transit system yet conservatives have been running everything for over 60 years and look where we’re at now. Growth with no solution, no help with potholes, worst education in the country, no repaving of the roads and yet liberals are too blame. Thank god I’m neither. I don’t want the Transit system either. This is why the South is so far behind the rest of the Country.. Ya’ll don’t know how to move forward. Life will change even if you don’t agree.

    1. MommaJoy

      Chris, Dems/Liberals having been running Nashville government since the 60’s. Fact, look it up. We have not had one Republican mayor since ’63, maybe even longer, that’s as far back as I could find info. So I can’t see how you can blame our cities problems on conservatives.
      My question to you is do you live in Nashville still? If it’s so terrible go somewhere that better suits you. If you don’t live here, then it really is not for you to say.
      Nashville has it’s problems; but, it is still a great city!

      1. MommaJoy

        I am against the currrent transit plan, because $9,000,000,000 has too many 0’s attached to it. We can find a better solution for the city, it [the city] should live within its means just as its citizens should.

  16. […] April 12 and 13 survey of likely Nashville voters found that 62 percent, plus or minus 4 percent, say that — if the election were held the day of the survey — […]

  17. Not My Mayor

    Good! One less department run by the unions.

  18. Mark Skoda

    So nice to see that cooler heads may prevail. This is one of the dumbest ideas for a city like Nashville ever to come before voters!

  19. Ned T

    No surprise; I know very few who support it besides the ultra-liberal councilperson who “represents” my district

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