Polling released for Tennessee’s gubernatorial race on Monday found U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) holding an 11.5-point lead over the Democratic nominee, Jerri Green, while independent candidate David Hatley reached double digits.
The Spry Research survey showed that Blackburn has the support of 43.5 percent of the electorate, followed by Green at 32 percent. Hatley trails both major party candidates at 11.9 percent, while an additional 1.4 percent of respondents told pollsters they support former Lipscomb University professor Lauren Pinkston in her independent bid.
An additional 10.2 percent said they were undecided, while 0.9 percent said they support another candidate. A total of 13 independent Tennessee gubernatorial candidates will appear on the ballot in 2026.
The Spry Research survey shows Blackburn leading broadly across the electorate, outperforming Green among men and women, and in both rural and suburban Tennessee, and throughout Middle Tennessee, West Tennessee, and East Tennessee.
When given a list of seven potential issues and asked which was the most important, 28.7 percent of respondents said Socialism and Communism, followed by 20.6 percent who cited the decline of religious values in America.
Those issues were followed by artificial intelligence (AI) data centers, which was cited by 17.8 percent of respondents. An additional 13.3 percent told pollsters their most important issue was AI, meaning 31.1 percent of those surveyed said an issue related to AI was most important.
A total of 62.1 percent of voters also told pollsters they opposed the construction of an AI data center in their local community, with 48 percent stating they would strongly oppose such construction. When the AI data center was being built somewhere else, opposition decreased to 44 percent.
The pollsters later found that a plurality of respondents said the best way to move forward with AI data centers was to impose new regulations and oversight over data centers, which the pollsters said could include “requiring them to pay local property taxes and meet environmental standards.”
According to the survey, 36.3 percent of respondents approved of this strategy, while 31.7 percent supported a moratorium on construction “until stronger rules are in place.”
An additional 15.7 percent told pollsters they would like to see “tax breaks and incentives” rolled back for AI data centers, and 5.6 percent said construction should continue at its current pace. Another 10.7 percent were not sure.
When asked what about AI worried them, 21.3 percent of respondents said they were concerned it would allow the “[s]pread of false or misleading information,” while 18.3 percent reported they were worried about loss of jobs, 14 percent lack of regulation, and 12.4 percent cited energy and environmental costs.
Legislation already passed earlier this year by State Representative Ed Butler (R-Rickman) and State Senator Brent Taylor (R-Memphis), and signed by Governor Bill Lee, was aimed at preventing normal utility customers from paying costs imposed by the existence or creation of AI data center.
Public Chapter 961 prevents municipalities and utility companies from paying or absorbing the cost of electrical infrastructure needed by any AI data center that requires 50 megawatts or more of peak electrical demand during their first three years.
The Spry Strategies survey was conducted between October 10 and 16 among 635 likely Tennessee voters, and the pollsters reported a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. Respondents were contacted through text messages directing them to an online survey, and they reported weighted the responses to reflect the state’s likely electorate.
The survey follows September polling by The Progress Fund, a Democratic political action committee (PAC) supporting Green, that showed Blackburn leading the Democrat 45 percent to 36 percent, with Hatley receiving the support of 10 percent of respondents.
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Tom Pappert is a 2025 recipient of the Dao Prize and the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star. He also reports for the Star News Network. Follow Tom on X. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Marsha Blackburn” by Marsha Blackburn.
I cannot wait to vote for her. After 8 years of “moderate” Bill, it will be nice to have someone who will fight along with the legislature to keep Tennessee red!
God help us all…. I thought we were against geriatrics who refused to debate. I guess that’s only true when it’s a (D).