Polling released Thursday morning shows U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) holds a 21-point lead over the Democrats’ nominee, Jerri Brown, in the race to become Tennessee’s next governor.
Beacon Center of Tennessee’s analysis of its poll, conducted by Targoz Market Research from August 15 through August 26, found that 55 percent of likely voters prefer Blackburn, while just 34 percent would vote for Green.
While the pollsters acknowledged Blackburn became the nominee following a “hard-fought and divisive” primary contest that led to “bruised feelings” within the Republican Party, they wrote that “any lingering divisions have not dented her standing heading into November.”
Blackburn notably maintained a double-digit lead over Green even without the Beacon Center eliminating those unlikely to vote in November, with 46 percent of all respondents telling pollsters they would vote for the Republican.
When including registered voters who may not vote in November, Blackburn’s share of the vote dropped by 9 percentage points, while Green’s remained virtually unchanged.
The pollsters also said 14 percent of all respondents were undecided, while 8 percent said they support one of the 13 independent political candidates running for governor in Tennessee.
Among those who preferred an independent candidate, 14 percent said they would vote for former Lipscomb University professor Lauren Pinkston, who once raised money for the political party launched by former Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang.
David Hatley was behind Pinkston, with the support of 13 percent of those who prefer an independent candidate. Hatley is a businessman who recently published a book about his 1998 conviction for felony bank fraud.
None of the other 11 independent candidates received more than 10 percent of the vote share. Only 87 individuals were included in this sample.
The data also showed U.S. Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) performing strongly against his opponent, environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw, with Hagerty leading his Democratic challenger 51 percent to 31 percent among registered voters. Just 12 percent of respondents said they were undecided, and only 6 percent said they would vote for an independent candidate.
Republicans in the U.S. House also fared well, with the pollsters reporting that 50 percent of respondents said they would vote for the Republican candidate in their congressional district, compared to just 33 percent who said they would vote for a Democrat. An additional 15 percent of respondents said they were undecided, but only 3 percent said they would vote for someone other than a major party candidate.
Pollsters also asked respondents about 2028, revealing Vice President JD Vance to as the early favorite among Tennessee Republicans. A total of 58 percent said they prefer Vance, compared to 22 percent who chose Secretary of State Marco Rubio and 11 percent who chose Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
While the poll mostly offered good news for Republicans, the data included a potentially troubling development for the party’s leader, President Donald Trump.
According to the pollsters, Trump only has the approval of 48 percent of Tennesseans, while 51 percent now disapprove of his performance as president. His support was also weaker than his disapproval, with 21 percent strongly approving of his performance, compared with 40 percent who strongly disapproved.
While the Beacon Center said it was the first time Trump’s approval numbers dipped below 50 percent since it began polling on the subject, other pollsters have recorded lower numbers for the president, including a 2018 poll that showed Trump underwater and Blackburn tied against former Governor Phil Bredesen during her first election to the U.S. Senate.
Trump won Tennessee with 64.2 percent of the vote in 2024.
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Tom Pappert is a 2025 recipient of the Dao Prize and the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star. He also reports for the Star News Network. Follow Tom on X. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Marsha Blackburn” by Marsha Blackburn.
