With mere hours to go before the 2022 midterm election, polls are showing Ohio Republican Senate candidate J.D. Vance blow past his Democratic rival Tim Ryan, even as Ryan still claims the race is a “dead heat.”
In a late Sunday night Twitter post, Ryan cited a survey result showing both candidates with 46 percent support among voters.
“Even with the GOP massively outspending us on the airwaves, we’re neck-and-neck in the polls,” Ryan wrote. “We’re going to win this, I can feel it.”
The only survey publicized in recent weeks showing the result of which the 13th-district congressman spoke was a Siena College Research Institute Poll conducted between October 14 and October 19. Shortly thereafter, a Marist College survey undertaken between October 17 and October 20 showed the candidates tied at 47 percent among likely voters. But four polls conducted more recently all show Vance with a strong lead.
Emerson College, the GOP-aligned firm Remington Research, and Cygnal’s tracking poll arrived at results putting Vance at between 5 and 10 points ahead of Ryan. And the most recent survey, conducted between November 3 and November 5 by the Republican-aligned Trafalgar Group, finds the Republican beating Ryan by 10 points.
Going into Election Day, the poll-tracking RealClearPolitics website averages all surveys in the Ohio Senate race to show Vance leading by 7.5 percent. Another major data aggregator, FiveThirtyEight, calculates a polling average suggesting a 5.4-percent Vance lead. The latter has also calculated the odds of each candidate winning the seat being vacated by retiring U.S. Republican Senator Rob Portman and concludes that Vance has an 86 percent chance of prevailing.
Ryan did not indicate whether he was referencing the Siena poll or a more recent internal poll and his campaign did not respond to an Ohio Star request for comment. Vance supporters meanwhile derided Ryan’s assertion that polling shows the two hopefuls tied.
“HAHAHAHA!!!!” Republican House Energy & Commerce Committee Spokesman Jack Heretik wrote in an online post responding to Ryan. “This may be the most laughable tweet ever. Ryan is getting destroyed in most polls and the actual results will be even worse for him. @JDVance1 is going to win easily.”
Overall, Republican fortunes in the Buckeye State look bright in light of FiveThirtyEight’s calculations. Republican Governor Mike DeWine surpasses Democratic former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley significantly in every poll.
Meanwhile, three competitive U.S. House races have been the subject of the site’s analyses and GOP candidates are given much greater chances in two of them.
In the Youngstown-area 13th district from which Ryan is retiring, FiveThirtyEight gives Republican attorney Madison Gesiotto Gilbert a 79-percent chance of beating Democratic opponent Emilia Sykes, a state representative from Ohio’s 34th Legislative District. And in the Cincinnati-area 1st district, longtime incumbent Steve Chabot is given an 82 percent chance of besting Democratic Cincinnati city councilman Greg Landsman. Chabot’s advantageous position is despite President Joe Biden having beaten former President Donald Trump among district residents in 2020.
An exception to the Republicans’ favorable circumstances is seen in the Toledo-based 9th district, where Republican Air Force veteran J.R. Majewski is suggested to have a 23 percent chance of defeating 40-year Democratic Congresswoman Marcy Kaptur. The district is one of the few where an incumbent Democrat is seeking re-election in territory in which Trump got more votes than Biden in 2020.
The president’s own lack of popularity appears to be a major factor weighing down members of his party seeking Ohio voters’ support. Trump won the state comfortably in 2020 but the current president’s public image among Buckeye Staters has only worsened since then. Cygnal’s latest statewide survey indicates nearly 60 percent of Ohioans view Biden negatively.
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Bradley Vasoli is managing editor of The Ohio Star. Follow Brad on Twitter at @BVasoli. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “JD Vance” by JD Vance. Photo “Tim Ryan” by Congressman Tim Ryan. Background Photo “U.S. Capitol” by Thuan Vo.
