by Fred Lucas
Vice President JD Vance blamed the Iran war for 2026 Democratic victories Wednesday in a blunt post on X.
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” stated Vance, who, at this point, is the presumed front-runner for the 2028 GOP presidential nomination.
“If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” Vance wrote. “Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was “composition”—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? “No,” he told me. “We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to IsraelOur voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
Citing an unnamed pollster, the vice president said that President Donald Trump’s 2024 voters who planned to vote Democrat in 2026 gave their top four reasons they could return to the GOP: “end the war,” “focus on cost of living/inflation,” “put America First,” and “change our relationship to Israel.”
Vance said that “our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats.”
“This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos-Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound,” Vance added.
As a senator, Vance opposed foreign intervention in the Russia-Ukraine war and was critical of previous interventions by the George W. Bush administration.
However, since Trump launched extensive strikes against Iran in February, he has never publicly opposed the war effort, though it is unusual for a vice president to critique administration policy.
Vance was part of a delegation that tried to negotiate the foundation of a peace agreement with Iran, but Iran declined to give up its nuclear ambitions.
The vice president noted in his X post, “I asked the smartest data guy” about polling. He said the response was, “The data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us.”
When asked about Vance’s comment, Trump later told reporters, “I think it’s largely true, because it drove the gasoline up a little bit short-term.” But he added, “If I had to do it again, I’d do it again because, long term, it’s the only answer. You can’t have Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
.@POTUS on @VP’s post: “I thought it was good. I knew that when I went in. We stopped them from having a nuclear weapon, and they’ll never have a nuclear weapon.” https://t.co/HIL4J15yoZ
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) November 4, 2026
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Fred Lucas is senior investigative reporter for the Daily Signal. He is the author of “The Myth of Voter Suppression: The Left’s Assault on Clean Elections.”
