Ohio Republican J.D. Vance prevailed in his race Tuesday against U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH-13) for the U.S. Senate seat from which Republican Rob Portman is retiring this year.
With 95 percent of the state’s voting precincts reporting at 11:15 p.m. on Election Night, Vance was beating Ryan 53.63 percent to 46.37 percent and NBC News called the race for the Republican. Vance thus secured a key victory for his party’s effort to retake the Senate majority. The win by the attorney, author and venture capitalist also boosts the wing of the GOP most favorable toward former President Donald Trump who enthusiastically endorsed Vance earlier this year.
Even as early as Tuesday afternoon, reports came out regarding low turnout among Democrats in Ohio and other states, prompting some national commentators to confidently predict Vance would rout his opponent.
“In Ohio, it’s going to be an early night,” radiologist and pundit Pradheep J. Shanker opined in an online post just after 2 p.m.
Throughout most of the campaign Ryan kept polling numbers competitive, though data analysts generally rated him as the underdog. While the Youngstown-area congressman proved himself a strong fundraiser, the national Democratic Party gave him virtually no assistance in his race against Vance. The Republican, meanwhile, benefitted greatly from national GOP committees’ largesse.
In late October, Ryan became so incensed at his own party’s federal committees’ refusal to aid him, he lashed out at them publicly, saying, “National Democrats have been known not to make very good strategic decisions over the years.”
In the final days of the campaign, Vance grew his modest polling edge into an insurmountable lead, with both the Republican-aligned Trafalgar Group and the Democrat-supportive firm Data for Progress reporting the found Vance 10 points ahead of Ryan going into Election Day.
Republican wins in the Buckeye State and elsewhere on Tuesday owed in large part to broad public dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden’s job performance. A CNN exit poll found 73 percent of voting Americans surveyed were at least “dissatisfied” with America’s direction under Biden. Only 25 percent of voters considered themselves satisfied or thoroughly happy with the state of the country.
According to a Cygnal poll, Ohio voters ascribed much of their own dissatisfaction squarely to the president, with nearly 60 percent of voters registering a negative view of him.
Ryan didn’t hide his awareness of voters’ general dislike of the commander-in-chief, stating unequivocally this fall that he would not ask Biden to visit Ohio on his behalf. But Vance and his allies repeatedly reminded Buckeye Staters that the Democratic congressman has consistently voted the president’s position on all legislation that has come up in the U.S. House. Of the roughly 100 major votes examined by the data aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Ryan sided with Biden on all of them.
Nonetheless, just after precinct reporting began to show Vance pulling away from Ryan who led in the early votes, liberal journalist Matthew Yglesias argued on Twitter that the congressman still demonstrated some success in courting moderate voters who are upset with the president.
“Tim Ryan is probably going to lose but he’s clearly running *way* ahead of Biden and this race is a reminder that swing voters and real and offers a model for how to do better at persuading them,” Yglesias wrote.
As the tide began to turn in Vance’s direction, conservatives voiced elation at keeping Portman’s seat red.
“I think J.D. Vance is going to defeat Tim Ryan!” Texas-based pundit Kambree exclaimed in response to the election returns. “This will be a huge blow. Fingers crossed.”
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Bradley Vasoli is managing editor of The Ohio Star. Follow Brad on Twitter at @BVasoli. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “JD Vance” by JD Vance. Photo “Tim Ryan” by Tim Ryan.
