With the Arizona general election only a week away, OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) released its final Arizona Public Opinion Pulse (AZPOP) poll Monday, showing nearly every race neck and neck. The race for Senate has become especially close, and Republican nominee Blake Masters said it is because Arizonans realize what’s at stake.
“Despite massive financial backing from the wealthy special interests who control him, Mark Kelly’s campaign is floundering because Arizonans know Mark Kelly is the one responsible for surging inflation, surging crime, and surging gas prices. They also know that Mark Kelly is the single Senator most responsible for our open border disaster. This election is a referendum on border security and Mark Kelly’s betrayal of every Arizona family,” Masters said in a statement emailed to The Arizona Sun Times. “A vote for Kelly is a vote for open borders. A vote for me is a vote for secure borders and safe communities. That’s what is at stake in this election.”
Masters sat two percent behind Kelly in the AZPOP, within the poll’s four-point margin of error (MOE). Only three percent of voters remained undecided in this race, the same amount showing support for Libertarian nominee Marc Victor.
Despite still being slightly behind, this poll shows considerable momentum for Masters. The last AZPOP conducted at the beginning of October showed Kelly ahead of Masters by double digits, a lead that has been nearly erased. As Masters pointed out, Kelly has spent big in this race. As of October 19, the Federal Election Commission (FEC) reported Kelly spending over $75,000,000, more than seven times the $9,600,000 Masters spent during the same period.
“The Senate contest went from sleeper to competitive in this past month – Kelly’s massive spending advantage over Masters may not be enough to hold his seat,” said Mike Noble, OHPI chief of research.
Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake also saw favor in this poll. She leads Democrat Katie Hobbs by two percent, also within the poll’s MOE. Interestingly, when asked why they support the nominee they do, the majority – 55 percent of respondents planning to vote for Hobbs – said it was because they oppose Lake, not because they see Hobbs as favorable. Lake, meanwhile, enjoys a stronger following, with 74 percent of likely Lake voters doing so because they support her.
The Arizona Sun Times reached out to the Lake campaign for a comment but did not receive a response before publishing.
However, other races in the poll show a slight lead for Democrats. In the race for attorney general, Democrat Kris Mayes has a three percent lead over Trump-endorsed Abe Hamadeh. Republican Mark Finchem also trails Adrian Fontes by six points for secretary of state. The Republicans led in both races in the last AZPOP, but Nobel said it appears Independent voters are breaking for Democrats. Both races still see double digits for undecided voters, who may be the ultimate deciders in these races.
“If one thing is clear, voters are starting to really pay attention,” said Noble. “With no candidate in a comfortable leading position, most Arizona down-ticket races will come down to one thing: the undecided voters.”
The poll received responses from 600 likely Arizona voters between October 24 and 26.
Of note, the poll found that Republican voters are split on voting early and in-person on Election Day, while the vast majority of Democrats planned to vote early.
As reported by The Sun Times, this likely means initial results on election night will point blue but may turn red once recorders catch up on counting day-of votes.
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Neil Jones is a reporter for The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Neil on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Blake Masters” by Gage Skidmore. CC BY-SA 2.0. Photo “Mark Kelly” by Senator Mark Kelly. Background Photo “U.S. Senate” by U.S. Senate.
