by Ben Whedon
The Cook Political Report on Thursday moved its ratings for the Iowa and Texas Senate ratings from Republican-leaning to toss-ups, marking the latest indicator that the Senate, once thought safely Republican for the cycle, may be up for grabs,
Cook Political Report provides race rankings based on polling data and research. While Iowa and Texas both currently have Republican senators, polling has suggested that Democrats could emerge on top in both states.
“Republicans still retain a structural advantage given the partisan challenges of the map, and Democrats still need almost every key race to break their way,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote. “But as we recently wrote, in a wave election akin to 2006, even states that President Donald Trump won by double digits could move within Democrats’ reach.”
In Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing off against Democrat James Talarico. He previously ousted Sen. Jon Cornyn, R-Texas, in the primary race.
But Paxton faces several challenges and has weathered a series of personal scandals, including an unsuccessful impeachment attempt backed by anti-Paxton, Republican state officials aligned with Democrats.
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, when then-Gov. Ann Richards lost her re-election bid to George W. Bush. Bush, the Republican nominee and future president, defeated the popular incumbent 53.5% to 45.9% jtnthat year — the last time a Democrat has exceeded 45% of the vote in a Texas gubernatorial contest. Four years later, Bush won re-election in a landslide, taking 68% against Democrat Garry Mauro.
The state’s modern Republican dominance in U.S. Senate races dates to the same era. The last Democrat elected to the Senate from Texas was Lloyd Bentsen in 1988; a 1993 special election to fill his seat went to Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison. Since then, the closest challenge came in 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz held off Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points, the narrowest Senate margin in Texas in three decades. John Cornyn’s subsequent victories were more comfortable, including a 9.6-point win in 2020.
In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson, R-Iowa, is running to replace the retiring Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, and faces Democrat Josh Turek. The RealClearPolitics polling average has shown him Hinson with a 0.7% lead.
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Ben Whedon is the Chief Political Correspondent for Just the News. Follow him on X. Executive Editor of The Tennessee Star and The Star News Network Christina Botteri contributed to this report.
Photo “James Talerico” by James Talerico.
