As early ballots ship out to Arizonan voters, the OH Predictive Insights (OHPI) unveiled its latest poll for Arizona’s gubernatorial race, showing Republican Kari Lake with a lead over her Democrat opponent, Katie Hobbs, and growing support from Hispanic voters.
“Why would anyone be surprised that Hispanic voters are abandoning Katie Hobbs when she couldn’t even name a single thing she likes about them during a Latino outreach event? Like all Arizonans, Arizona Hispanics are sick and tired of policies promoted by Katie Hobbs and the Democrats that make our communities less safe and our groceries more expensive,” Lake said in an email to The Arizona Sun Times.
Of the 674 likely Arizona voters who responded to the survey, 47 percent shared support for Lake, while 44 were for Hobbs. However, the poll’s margin of error is 3.77 percent, with Lake’s lead falling within that boundary. Only nine percent of voters remain unsure in this race, and less than a percent refuse to vote. Due to a high volume of campaign ads coming from each nominee, 90 percent of respondents have at least heard of Lake and Hobbs.
🚨New OHPI data on Governor's race🚨
Lake holds a narrow lead over Hobbs with 47% of likely voters in support of the Trump-endorsed candidate, and 44% in support of Hobbs
Full release: https://t.co/QrsSECAOrZ
— Noble Predictive Insights (@NoblePredictive) October 14, 2022
The OHPI stated that the demographics mostly align with what they expected. Most of Lake’s supporters were men and those who hail from rural counties, while Hobbs saw backing from suburban women. However, Hispanic voters are evenly split, with 44 percent supporting each nominee, which the OHPI called “a change of pace” for this group which traditionally voted blue in the past. Yet, while independents typically leaned right in the pre-Trump era, 46 percent of them supported Hobbs compared to 40 for Lake.
“In Arizona’s political climate this past year, we have seen some of these key voter blocs have a real impact on which way the election swings, and it is clearly no different for the Governor’s race,” said Mike Noble, OHPI Chief of Research. “Each candidate has their reliable voters, but it is these all-important demographics – as well as the undecideds – who will make the final call come November.”
Moreover, the OHPI poll was not the only recent survey Lake led. Fox 10 also conducted a poll which found Lake ahead by four points at 49.3 percent. She also led heavily in the 18 to 39 age group. RealClear Politics averaged all polls taken regarding the gubernatorial race between September 17th and October 11th from seven outlets and found that Lake leads over Hobbs by 0.9 percent overall.
While Lake and Hobbs remain close in the polls, faith in Hobbs’s chances of success seems to be dwindling. AZ Central, an outlet Lake has openly bashed for biased coverage against her, published an opinion piece saying momentum is shifting in the Republican’s favor. Hobbs has recently faced a slew of controversies beyond the Latino event incident. Unearthed yearbook pictures revealed that Hobbs was involved in coordinating a “Slave Day” in high school. Then there’s the Arizona PBS controversy where Channel 8 “broke the rules” to give Hobbs a solo interview behind the Clean Elections Commission’s back.
– – –
Neil Jones is a reporter for The Arizona Sun Times and The Star News Network. Follow Neil on Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Kari Lake with Supporters” by Kari Lake.Â
