Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) leads Democrat Troy Jackson in two consecutive public polls of Maine’s U.S. Senate race, narrowing Jackson’s advantage in recent polling averages as the contest enters its final weeks.
Collins led Jackson 49% to 46% among likely voters in a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena College poll conducted September 15-22. The three-point margin falls within the survey’s 4.9-point margin of error. Five percent of respondents were undecided. The poll interviewed 619 voters.
Those finding confirm the Quantus Insights poll conducted September 14-15, which also showed Collins ahead, 47% to 46%.
Those results reverse the direction of several earlier surveys that had Jackson ahead. A CNN/SSRS poll in early September showed Jackson leading 48% to 45%. A YouGov survey around the same period also put Jackson in front. An August Fox News poll showed Jackson ahead 48% to 46%.
Polling averages still show a tight race. Aggregators compiling recent surveys have had Jackson ahead by about one percentage point or less, depending on which polls are included and when they were added. Individual surveys remain close, and their methodologies differ.
The Siena fieldwork was conducted largely before voters had time to absorb new reporting about Collins and a Hawaii defense contractor.
Collins has outperformed public polling before. In 2020, Democrat Sara Gideon led Collins in many pre-election surveys. Collins came back to win 51% to 42.4% even as Democrat Joe Biden carried Maine.
However, Jackson was not the candidate Maine Democrats originally nominated to challenge Collins.
Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and Marine and Army veteran, won the June Democratic primary. His campaign drew national attention, including support from Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT).
But Platner faced a series of controversies before and after the primary, including deleted Reddit posts containing offensive language and questions about a skull-and-crossbones tattoo that resembled the Nazi-era Totenkopf symbol. He apologized for some posts and said he received the tattoo in 2007 without knowing its association, later covering it.
His candidacy collapsed after a former girlfriend publicly accused him of rape. Platner denied the allegation. He suspended his campaign July 8 and formally withdrew July 10.
Maine Democrats selected Jackson, a former Maine Senate president, as the replacement nominee later in July.
Reuters reported on Saturday that Democratic Gov. Janet Mills had not endorsed him, citing lingering primary-season divisions.
Collins, meanwhile, is seeking a sixth term. A Caribou native, she graduated from St. Lawrence University in 1975 and worked for then-Rep. William Cohen, remaining on his staff after he won a Senate seat. Gov. John McKernan appointed her Maine’s commissioner of professional and financial regulation in 1987. President George H.W. Bush appointed her New England regional director of the Small Business Administration in 1992.
She won the Republican nomination for governor in 1994 and lost to independent Angus King. In 1996 she won the Senate seat Cohen vacated. She was reelected in 2002, 2008, 2014 and 2020.Collins has broken with Republicans on high-profile votes, including opposing repeal of the Affordable Care Act in 2017 and voting to convict President Donald Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021. Democrats have focused on her 2018 vote to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
She chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, a post she has used to highlight federal funding for Maine. Contracting and campaign money are now central to the race.
As Collins gained ground with voters, ProPublica reported Tuesday that FBI agents examined allegations involving Collins’ political operation and Navatek, a Hawaii-based defense contractor formerly led by Martin Kao. Kao pleaded guilty in federal cases involving illegal campaign contributions and fraud and later spoke with investigators.
According to that reporting, Kao told investigators that campaign contributions were part of an effort to secure federal contracts and described interactions involving Collins’ political network. An FBI spokesperson told ProPublica an earlier inquiry “ultimately found nothing implicating Senator Collins or Senator Collins’ campaign.” No charges have been brought against Collins or her staff. Collins has denied wrongdoing and called the report false and misleading.
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Christina Botteri is the Executive Editor of The Tennessee Star and The Star News Network. Follow her on X at @christinakb.
