Emerson College Polling Senior Director Matt Taglia acknowledged to The Tennessee Star on Wednesday that the methodology for the organization’s survey of voters in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District special election anticipated fewer supporters of President Donald Trump to cast a ballot than in 2024.
After The Star noted that both President Donald Trump and former U.S. House Representative Mark Green won their 2024 elections in 20-point landslides, Taglia confirmed to The Star that pollsters expect reduced turnout among the president’s supporters.
Taglia told The Star, “there is likely to be fewer Trump voters relative to 2024 for the special election,” according to their estimation. He stated, “This is based on a combination of factors, including updated voter registration data, prior electoral performance, and early voting data.”
He also disputed that the decision to create a sample including a smaller share of Trump voters than were part of the 2024 electorate meant there was a disproportionate number of Democrats included in the poll, and noted that one quarter of respondents were not registered with a major political party.
The data published by Emerson’s pollsters predicts that independent voters will break for Behn by a significant margin. It suggests she will win about 50 percent of ballots cast by independents, with just 33 percent voting for Van Epps.
Data on how the district’s independent voters cast their ballots in 2024 is sparse, but nationwide, about 45 percent voted for Trump and 50 percent for former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Voters will cast their ballot in the General Election on December 2. Early voting concluded on Wednesday morning for much of the district.
As early voting drew to a close, a number of past statements by Behn resurfaced, including an anti-Nashville rant where the Democrat revealed she hates country music. On Sunday, Behn sought to dispel the characterization of her musical tastes by revealing, “I was conceived after a George Strait concert.”
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Tom Pappert is the lead reporter for The Tennessee Star, and also reports for The Pennsylvania Daily Star and The Arizona Sun Times. Follow Tom on X/Twitter. Email tips to [email protected].
Photo “Aftyn Behn” by Aftyn Behn.
The left will do whatever it needs to do insure she wins so unless you want to send another communist to DC you better get out and make the vote for Van Epps too big to rig. Polls are every bit as rigged as our elections so do not put much faith in this poll. Donald Trump has nothing to do with this election. It is America First v. Communism.